Early Division 2 Preview and Predictions

It’s still months away from the start of the English county season of 2015 but most squads are now back in training and with most signings completed I feel there is a fairly clear idea of what will happen next year. Here are my thoughts starting with the second division of the championship.

 

Surrey 

Positives – The squad as a whole looks as deep and varied as any in the second division. The fast bowling is especially well stocked. There are also a growing group of very promising young English players (Burns, Ansari, Roy, Foakes, Dunn, Curran) who will be heavily motivated to push themselves towards England selection. Ford and Stewart make a compelling duo as coaches and financial strength means that they will never be short of a top class overseas player – likely Kumar Sangakkara.

Negatives – Their relative youth as a group could play against them if they do start losing. Dernbach, Meaker and Tremlett have questionable fitness levels over the last few years.

How they could line-up

Burns, Ansari, Sangakarra, Solanki, Davies, Roy, Wilson Batty, Meaker, Dunn, Dernbach

Verdict – I see good things for Surrey. They have young and improving players who have chances of playing for England in the future – but for now are busting a gut to improve and making an impact at Surrey. It’s a young squad with enough quality that if they were to get promoted I can see them competing well in the first division and have enough to stay up and then prosper. It was a blessing they didn’t get promoted this year as it gives them another year for the youngsters to develop and bed in. Supreme depth gives them the edge over everyone. 

Prediction: Top 2 and a lot of talk over their skilled English performers.

Lancashire 

Positives – Ashley Giles is a good coach with an excellent record in county cricket with Warwickshire. Ashwell Prince has decided not to retire and Tom Smith was one of the players of the year last year in division one. There are an excellent bunch of young players (Mahmood, Hameed, Parkinson) coming through although there impact will likely only be minimal this year.

Negatives – Doubts remain over the quality of many of the players. The likes of Brown, Proctor and Horton need to stand up or be released once the season ends. Kyle Hogg has retired leaving the bowling looking weaker especially as Chapple nears the end and Kyle Jarvis has struggled.

How they could line-up

Reece, Horton, Overseas, Prince, Croft, Davies, Smith, Kerrigan, Chapple Buck, Jarvis

Verdict: A quality overseas could add so much depth to the batting or bowling unit to gel everything together but at present I feel the squad is a little lacking. So long the strong point the bowling looks light and lacking in quality, whilst there are big concerns over the top order batsmen. Like Surrey in 2014 I believe they would probably be better off (and probably will) staying in Division 2 for another year and rebuilding whilst giving opportunities to the younger players. 

Prediction:  Top half but probably not promotion and a clear out of the junk at the end of the season once Giles can make a proper assessment of the quality of the squad.

Essex

Positives – The emergence of Nick Browne, improvement of Tom Westley and Jesse Ryder’s presence makes Essex’s batting one of the strongest in the division on paper. The first choice bowling lineup of Masters, Topley, Napier, Panesar and Ryder is miles and away the best in the division.

Negatives – Outside the frontline bowlers there is a dearth of experience and talent which may prove pivotal given the injury records of Masters, Topley and Napier over the 2014 season. Plus they always seem to find some way not to get promoted.

How they could line-up
Browne, Mickleburgh, Westley, Bopara, Ryder, Foster, Velani, Napier, Masters, Topley, Panesar

Verdict: An excellent first xi masks what is a squad lacking depth in both batting and bowling. Any injury or bust up and they will be really struggling. If (and it’s a big if) the bowlers stay fit they should be no match for any team in the division. I think that the lack of depth in the end will be the defining reason why they don’t get promoted again. 

Prediction: Top 4 and big questions should be asked if they aren't promoted but bet on Foster and Grayson once again evading the axe.

Derbyshire 

Positives – A young, motivated coach in Graeme Welch has already made improvements to players and they are likely to continue. Mark Footitt is their most obvious asset as he combines good pace and swing, if not entirely reliable. Shiv Thakor was a nice pick up for a second division club and could be a mainstay of the team for the next 10 years.

Negatives – The batting is short of real quality, Madsen aside. With Footitt going away with the England performance squad there is always the concern he returns injured like so many of the recent bowlers and there is no guarantee he can replicate last season’s heroics which was his best season by far.

How they could line-up 

Slater, Godleman, Madsen, Overseas, Thakor, Durston, Poynton, Wainwright, Palladino, Footitt, Cotton

Verdict – The squad on the whole is a little light on talent and much of what happens to Derbyshire will be dependent on how much improvement Welch and his backroom can get out of the average players. Madsen and Footitt are quality and should Footitt remain fit and firing don’t discount promotion but others will have to make big improvements and contributions.

Prediction:  Upper mid table. Too much reliance on Madsen and Footitt likely will put pay to their chances of promotion.

Northamptonshire

Positives – In Olly Stone and David Willey they have two excellent, young bowling prospects who could form an extremely profitable opening bowling partnership. There are other good young prospects and it should be a motivated group of players with plenty to prove.

Negatives – They had a real clear out at the end of the season getting rid of established names like Hall, Middlebrook and Sales and this leaves the squad very inexperienced. It will be a big burden for a young squad to handle.  No Hall or Middlebrook go a lot of last season’s wickets.

How they could line-up
Peters, Overseas, Wakely, Keogh, Cobb, Newton, Duckett, Crook, Willey, Stone, Azharullah

Verdict- With so much change in the setup it’s hard to quite know how things will turn out. Players like Keogh, Cobb, Newton and Duckett may not yet have achieved consistency, but there is certainly talent there. It’s likely to be a couple of years before they all start to put quality performances together but this is a squad that could go forward over the next few years to the first division and compete. Hopefully there are enough senior players to make sure that some of the younger players aren't led astray.

Prediction: Mid table. A chance of promotion but more likely a middling, inconsistent season with some bright spots.

Kent

Positives – Last season successes were brought about by the youngsters who generally stood up and performed. Bell-Drummond and Northeast led the batting averages and others like Billings and Riley made big improvements. This should leave a strong nucleus of a team for years to continue. Two decent spin  options.

Negatives – Claydon is reliable but isn’t going to get you promoted and the rest of the fast bowling is of average quality. Having Riley and Tredwell feels a little bit of a waste and if somehow they could swap one for a fast bowler of a similar quality from another county they would be in a considerably stronger position. Stevens, Nash and Key are all the wrong side of 35 and their performances are waning a little. They will leave a big hole in the team once they are gone.

How they could line-up

Key, Denly, Bell-Drummond, Northeast, Nash, Stevens, Billings, Claydon, Riley, Overseas, Griffiths

Verdict- A decent first team but the squad lacks quality backup. Regular from last year Ben Harmison and semi regular Adam Ball aren’t really up to it at present. Maybe a dustbowl and two spinners would be the best way to go for victory at Canterbury because the fast bowling is dangerously short on quality options. A middling position is likely unless they can pull a rabbit from the hat with their overseas player and even then the squad is heavily reliant on Stevens.

Prediction: Mid table   

Glamorgan

Positives – In a sense they have three overseas players. Rudolph (the actual overseas player) and Ingram (Kolpak) have spent time for other teams as overseas players and whilst Hogan (British passport) hasn’t, he is the best asset of the lot as a consistent and durable wicket taker. A couple of promising spinners in Bull and Salter should give them the option of playing two spinners.

Negatives – There is a lack of quality in the rest of the squad that always drags the team down. Allenby’s transfer is particularly tough to take as he offered the team balance and was a reliable option with the ball.

How they could line-up
Rudolph, Bragg, Kettleborough, Ingram, Cooke, Donald, Wallace, Meschede, Wagg, Cosker, Hogan

Verdict - Like many teams in the second division they lack quality squad depth. There seems to be a greater emphasis on youth with the release of a few older players and contracts for youth players. This probably means that it will be a transitional season. You can’t completely discard them because of Hogan.

Prediction: Top 5. Probably too much for Hogan to handle but if Ingram and Rudolph were to have good seasons  they could be the surprise of the division.

Gloucestershire

Positives – There is a basis of a decent team in a young group of players who have been together for a while and may be just starting to add a little consistency. The likes of Tavare, Dent, Roderick, Miles, Fuller, Norwell, Payne are all 25 or less and not without talent. Bracewell’s second tenure had become stale and change is welcomed.

Negatives – Both Gidmans have gone and Will in particular is a massive loss. Geraint Jones is a mediocre choice to bring in as captain batsman.

How they could line-up
Dent, Klinger, Tavare, Cockbain, Jones, Noema-Barnett, Roderick, T Smith, Miles, Fuller, Norwell
 

Verdict: The loss of Will Gidman is a tremendous body blow but a new start should be welcomed. The bowling has some real potential with Miles, Fuller and Norwell good prospects if (and it’s a big if) they can stay fit. Unfortunately they lack the reliable options that glue quality teams together. 

Prediction: Mid table shakeup but unlikely to seriously challenge for promotion.

Leicestershire 

Positives – Well they’ve changed things up in the post season with new chief executive and coaches which given their dismal performances over the last couple of years was needed but that’s about it.

Negatives – Most of the promising young players have left meaning the circle of despair will continue. The squad will be severely lacking in first class experience.

How they could line-up 

A Robson, Pinner, Eckersley, Redfern, O’Brien, Wells, Raine, R Taylor, Naik, Mckay, Freckingham

Verdict – There has been change but you can’t magic up a good squad. It’s rebuilding time again and the best they can hope for is a win and some young players making a step up, hopefully leading to challenging for promotion in later years.

Prediction – 9th. It’ll be a disappointment for the other teams if Leicestershire aren’t bottom once again.