Friday, 1 February 2013

ODI and T20 2017/18 analysis



ODI

Cook, Hales, Root, Stokes, Morgan, Buttler, Ansari, S Wood, Broad, Finn, Topley

Hales has shown himself to be a good hitter and sooner or later England are likely to decide they can’t win international tournaments with Cook, Trott and Bell together in the top 3. Hales seems to be a natural timer of a cricket ball and relatively relaxed about cricket in general, if technically limited. I rate Kieswetter highly and think he will get another chance at international cricket but the competition for the wicketkeepers spot is fierce so he just misses out as opener here – he should only open in ODI and T20 cricket as he is no middle order player. Steven Davies could return in the future as an opener but he is out of form at present. Varun Chopra, if he makes it into the test team would be an obvious option in ODI cricket also but like Cook he is a correct and compact player who lacks big power. If Cook wasn’t around he would be a solid option at the top of the order. Billings and Stirling are outsiders as openers. Billings has shown himself to be a sweet timer of the cricket ball with all the shots but isn’t currently playing first class cricket and isn’t wicketkeeping at Kent. He will find it hard to overtake other English keepers in the next five years. Stirling is an aggressive and as powerful hitter as there is in English cricket. His style is agricultural though and I have my doubts against international class bowling. It’s also unclear whether he would like to play for England and he seems a little unfit so this seems very unlikely- he is a talent though.

Root showed enough calmness and adaptability in India to suggest he should thrive wherever he ends up with England. Batting him at 3 allows him to rebuild if necessary with his compact batting style and to start against spin and accelerate if the situation dictates.

The batsmen at 4, 5 and 6 are an exciting bunch who all have experienced international cricket so far although Morgan is the only one to have nailed a place down. I’ve placed Stokes at 4 at this gives him the maximum amount of time to build an innings. Stokes has the ability to destroy an attack and is used to batting in the top 4 with Durham. It also allows Morgan at 5 and Buttler at 6 to guide the runchase. Both are adept at accelerating straight from the start of the innings and are good finishers. Buttler has shown in county cricket that he is a special talent and he needs to play. To give England more options I’m placing Buttler as keeper. Hopefully he gets the game time needed to develop his wicketkeeping enough for England to trust him in that position because otherwise England will have a surplus of top order batsmen who don’t offer any bowling options. Jonny Bairstow misses out here although he is likely to be around the squad. Unfortunately he hasn’t shown the skills in the shorter formats to warrant selection so far and loses out to Buttler in the wicketkeeping stakes on the basis that Buttler offers the more dynamic option with the bat. 

With Stokes, Zafar Ansari offers the fifth bowling option whilst occupying the number 7 spot. It is clear I rate the relatively unheralded Ansari from my Test discussion but it is in ODI and T20 cricket where Ansari has excelled. He seems to have a coolness and clarity of thought that combined with a wide range of strokes and a grounded personality should allow him to progress through the game to international level. In truth I’m taking quite a punt on Ansari and he may not have the talent to fulfil my expectations but I’ve liked everything I’ve seen and read so far on Ansari. Batting at 7 he could be another finisher whilst being the second spin option.

Other contenders for the middle order spots could be Taylor, Thakor, Bairstow and Ballance. Taylor is a skilled cricketer but at 5’4’’ he will never intimidate bowlers and lacks power to dominate an attack. He would have to develop his allround game and rotation of the strike if he wants to find a place in the England ODI team and it would have to be around bigger hitters. Thakor if he reaches the test highs will be around the ODI team and he’s shown adaptability so far in his career batting in various positions at Leicestershire. Developing his bowling skills would no doubt give him an advantage over other middle order options. Ballance is another exciting option who is unlucky to miss out. With the technical ability to face the best attacks and the strength and skill to really accelerate Ballance is definitely a good long term option. As so often in life luck may well play apart to whom eventually settles in the middle order but I’m quite excited about the options going forward for England in this area.

As I alluded to in the test piece, spin bowling is a worry and even moreso in ODI cricket where Panesar and Kerrigan are poor options given their lacklustre fielding and batting. Plucking names out for this was hard but I went with Sam Wood of Nottinghamshire. An offspinner with good flight and decent turn he is attractive because of his combative batting and good fielding also. Another option was Danny Briggs but I’m worried by the fact he doesn’t turn the ball and his limited fielding and batting skills do him no favours. Azeem Rafiq would be another option in a similar vein to Wood. George Dockrell would be the other candidate as someone who already has a vast experience of the game and is likely to have 2 world cups under his belt before he is selected for England- experience like that is hard to overlook if he continues to perform well. In summary the spinner could be anyone in 5 years time but I’m not overly impressed with the options. I hope the ECB is allocating sufficient finances into the development of the spinners of the future otherwise there could be some big problems.

Broad and Finn if both still fit and firing are good ODI bowlers and should be included. Other right arm fast bowling options could be Dernbach, TRJ, Shahzad and Jamie Overton. Dernbach at present seems to be getting worse not better but I can’t shed the belief that he could be a very good ODI bowler. He bowls at a very lively pace, swings the ball and has good variation. At present there is no pressure on the opposition as they know there will be 1 or 2 bad balls an over and uses his variation in an unwise way. He’s rightly been dropped and he needs to reassess his game but I would not rule out a successful comeback in time. His skills could definitely combine well and compliment an otherwise similar attack. There needs to be variation in an ODI bowling attack to be successful. TRJ is another option who would bowl very tightly but I have doubts over whether someone of his pace could prosper in ODI cricket. Ajmal Shahzad is still someone who could offer a lot to England although his time is running out. At 27 he needs to get it right and quick. His skiddy bowling with a good bouncer and yorker make him an enticing prospect if he gets his head right. Jamie Overton is an outsider but as an express pace bowler he would be an interesting option for ODI cricket and he may be blooded in ODI cricket to allow England to make a judgement on his test potential. Another Somerset player who has been dogged by injuries in recent times is Lewis Gregory who I rate very highly. He bowls with good pace and is a wicket taker in the shorter formats of the game. He actually sees himself as more of a batting allrounder but at present bowling looks his stronger suit. There is definite promise there but in the near future Gregory has to prove that he can stay injury free before he can start to be talked as a potential England player.

Topley takes the last place and gives the team good variation. Left armers are important in ODI cricket and someone who is 6’7’’ is going to be tough to play. Already had good success with Essex and in the u19 World cup and with a promotion to the Lions to boot Topley looks well on the way to international honours. The current England ODI bowling unit is all a bit samey since Ryan Sidebottom retired and I think England will be looking to blood Topley as early as possible. Chris Wood has been overlooked so far for England representation but he continues to excel in the shorter formats and is a regular death bowler at Hampshire with good variation. Lack of pace would be the main concern but he has added a bit in the last year and if he can get a couple more mph out of his action into the mid 80’s we could well have a prospect. He is also a quickly improving batsman. What can’t be overlooked by England is OD specific skills. Too often a Stuart Meaker or Chris Woakes is picked in the ODI setup with little OD form behind him. Wood at Hampshire has been given a lot of responsibility in a successful OD team and has OD specific skills. Keith Barker and David Willey are two other promising left arm bowlers on the circuit but neither are as skilled as Wood or have the pace and bounce of Topley so they may be better suited to Test cricket but they are certainly worth monitoring as having a good left armer is certainly beneficial for ODI and T20 cricket.

T20 

Hales, Stirling, Stokes, Bairstow, Morgan, Buttler, Ansari, Gregory, C Wood, Finn, Briggs

All of the names have been talked about in the ODI discussion but I feel this team has a good range of options. 1-9 are all powerful hitters with all capable of either clearing the boundary regularly or quality improvisation. The bowling is a combination of guile and pace with spin and pace reserve options.

Test team 2017/18 analysis



Following on from the previous blog some thoughts on the test team.

Cook(33), Chopra(30), Trott(36), Root(27), Thakor(24), Bairstow(28), Stokes(26), Broad(31), Roland-Jones(30), Topley(23), Kerrigan(28)

In county cricket at present there is a lack of quality openers both young and experienced. Root, Chopra and Hales are the obvious three. Root has made his way into the England team already and doesn’t look out of place starting against spin in the middle order. We’re yet to see him against quality pace and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is troubled – I just feel he may be better suited to the middle order. Hales has done well in county cricket and is a clean hitter who surely will be involved in ODI and T20 cricket. I’m not sure he quite has the attitude and technique to make it in test cricket. Chopra was an u19 starlit with England before falling back for a few years. Since he has moved to Warwickshire he has had a resurgence and with Nick Compton was the only other player to make 1000 runs in the last two seasons. Chopra is technically correct with a compact style and aggressive puller off the back foot. If he continues on his current path I feel he could well make his way into the England team in the next couple of years and be a successful test opener.

Root will find himself at 4 between the solid top 3 and protecting the more aggressive next three. Shiv Thakor has easily made the transition from u19 cricket to first team cricket at Leicestershire and has earned rave reviews from his teammates and journalists alike. He also provides a decent medium paced alternative. Picking Thakor in this team is a bit of a punt and it’s likelier that someone who has been involved in the lions like James Taylor will be there. But history says that it’s more than likely that there will be at least one youngster in there and Thakor is currently the strongest of the u20 batsmen so he gets this spot.
 I’ve placed Bairstow at 6 and as wicketkeeper. There are a number of decent potential options of wicketkeepers that are likely to be around in 5 years time (Buttler, Kieswetter, Foakes, S Davies, A Davies, R Burns) but Bairstow is in pole position having already made his test debut as a batsman and now being the frontline ODI keeper. Players like Buttler, Foakes and Burns will struggle to make it as international wicketkeepers if they are stuck behind colleagues at county level.

Ben Stokes bats at 7. Finding balance to any team is tough and I’m hoping that Stokes and Thakor develop their bowling in such a way that they combine to be a good fourth seamers option and third seamers option in Asia if England want to play two spinners. Stokes has possibly more natural batting talent for demolishing attacks than anyone in county cricket at present. He has struggled with injury in the last couple of years but at 21 and currently with 6 first class centuries in the first division to his name it is likely a matter of time before he gets a chance. There are some small attitude and fitness concerns that have been raised and it will be a shame if his huge talent is wasted. Stokes would be good enough to bat anywhere between 5 and 7 but finds himself at 7 to give himself free reign to play aggressively; Bairstow is the better batsman and with Stokes having to fulfil bowling duties 7 looks the best spot. Someone like Chris Woakes may turn into a good enough batsman to bat at 7 in test cricket but you can’t help but think that his bowling isn’t quite good enough for international cricket. Other options could be Craig Overton who at 19 has already made his way into the Lions team. It is not clear yet which is his stronger discipline but he is tall and has a good bowling action whilst being a conventional batsman.

In terms of spin bowling allrounders there isn’t much in county cricket but I would like to pinpoint two names. Liam Dawson, a left arm bowler is slowly developing his bowling game; has plenty of experience of batting high up the Hampshire order; and is an expert slip fielder. He is only 22 currently but with vast experience of county cricket(173 matches). Whilst his batting currently is his strong suit he isn’t overly talented in this regard. It is his spin bowling that impresses me and I feel there is a lot there to work with. Zafar Ansari is the other name who I am intrigued about. Also a slow left armer he would compliment a right arm offspinner in the team. Batting is Zafar’s strong discipline at present and it is in OD and T20 cricket that he has really shone. He has looked completely at ease in television games with a wide range of strokes and an ability to score quickly without hitting the cover off the ball. Both Dawson and Ansari at present are long shots but I wouldn’t be surprised at some point in the future if one of these players makes it to test cricket.

Broad if fit should be going strong with his batting keeping him in the team even if his pace falls further. 

Topley is the likeliest of the youngsters in county cricket to make it in my opinion. Currently 18 he bowls at around 85mph from 6’7’’, left arm over and swings the ball. The current England team lacks variation and Topley being a left armer could easily answer that problem. He has already proved a vital member of the Essex 4 and 1 day teams and if he continues on his current path I can see him making the ODI or T20 teams in the next couple of years with test cricket coming soon after. Keith Barker and David Willey are both good prospects who offer another left arm option. Both swing the ball and both are capable batsmen who could bat at 8. Unfortunately both at present are a bit short of pace. If they could find some more pace they could keep out Topley due to their allround package and greater experience. 

Batting at 8 I placed Toby Roland-Jones. This was a tough one. TRJ is hardly express pace and at 25 he is some way behind his younger rivals who have played a lot more cricket at their counties or for the Lions. TRJ is your typical English type bowler bowling a good line and length and relying on seam rather than vast swing or pace to take wickets. Due to his relative lack of pace he bowls a fuller length than most tall bowlers and this is where his success comes from.  He builds pressure and is a leaner version of his mentor at Middlesex at Gus Fraser. Averaging 20,22,23 in the 3 formats is some achievement and if he continues it will be hard for the selectors to overlook. It is possible you could see Middlesex bowlers TRJ and Steven Finn bowling in tandem for England one day(although not in this team). What could push TRJ over the line is his ever improving batting which he works hard on. Another new colleague at Middlesex James Harris is a similar bowler relying on accuracy and seam movement rather than raw pace to vex batsmen. TRJ to me has the edge due to his height but Harris has a chance.

In truth I’m slightly worried about England’s spin bowling options once Swann and Panesar go. Simon Kerrigan is the furthest developed of those in county cricket at present. He bowls with good flight and variation but loses marks for his poor batting and fielding. Really a modern day spinner in England should be learning to bat from an early age because there are occasion when you aren’t going to be needed to bowl and you may have to contribute with the bat – unless you’re a world class spinner such as Murali in which case you can do what you want. Other options may be Azeem Rafiq and Sam Wood but Rafiq to me looks nothing but a good county cricketer and Sam Wood is yet to play regularly. Both are good fielders and could bat 8 though which are positives- they would also offer a better option if paired with a SLA allrounder than Kerrigan. Danny Briggs doesn’t turn the ball enough and is no longer a regular at first class level and Scott Borthwick will never bowl enough to be a frontline bowler. It’s a big worry and the main problem on the horizon.

Jamie Overton was another possibility but at present is too raw to provide a judgement on. He has shown exceptional pace and an ability to swing the ball. There is raw talent and many within the England setup will be excited about him. You feel he could be playing international cricket by 21 or he could be struggling in the seconds. Stuart Meaker is pushing hard at present but I worry that apart from his pace I’m not sure he offers enough skills. He has also slightly disappointed me in that he seems to be a high 80’s mph bowler rather than the early 90’s that some were predicting.

2017/18 England Predictions



Following on from my last post I initially came up with the following teams a few weeks ago.

Test
 
Cook (C) (Essex)
Chopra (Warwickshire)
Root (Yorkshire)
Ballance (Yorkshire)
Thakor (Leicestershire)
Stokes (Durham)
A Davies(WK) (Lancashire)
Finn (Middlesex)
J Overton (Somerset)
Topley (Essex)
Kerrigan (Lancashire)

 
ODI
 
Cook (Essex)
Kieswetter (Somerset)
Stokes (Durham)
Bairstow (Yorkshire)
Morgan (Middlesex)
Ansari (C) (Surrey)
Buttler(wk) (Somerset)
Gregory (Somerset)
Broad (Nottinghamshire)
Willey (Northants)
Finn (Middlesex)

 
T20
 
Stirling (Middlesex)
Kieswetter (Somerset)
Stokes (Durham)
Bairstow (Yorkshire)
Morgan (Middlesex)
Buttler (WK) (Somerset)
Ansari(C) (Surrey)
J Taylor (Gloucestershire)
Gregory (Somerset)
Finn (Middlesex)
Dernbach (Surrey)

 Test Team
After some consideration and advice although I agree with the change in numbers of the teams I think the composition of the team is a bit too youth orientated. The Test team I suggest would have an average age of 26.6 years which would be very low. A more realistic team might have Taylor and Bairstow(both 28) in for Thakor and Davies and maybe Broad(31) instead of Overton or Trott in for Chopra with Root opening.

Cook (33), Root(27), Trott(36) Ballance(28), Taylor(28), Stokes(26), Bairstow(28), Broad(31), Finn(28), Kerrigan(28), Topley(23) Avg age 28.73

Or

Cook(33), Chopra(30), Trott(36), Root(27), Thakor(24), Bairstow(28), Stokes(26), Broad(31), Roland-Jones(30), Topley(23), Kerrigan(28) Avg age 28.73

Other players I considered that weren’t included in the teams above – Foakes, Finn, J Taylor, J Overton, C Overton, Anderson, A Davies, J Harris, Z Ansari, Meaker, Wells, Woakes, C Kieswetter, Willey, Dunn. Sorry everybody else and I’m sure there will be one or two who aren’t named here around the squad and one or two names I’ve just forgotten. Who would have predicted 5 years ago that Nick Compton or Jonathan Trott would be here today?

ODI team
I made the team listed at the start of this post before the India ODI series and its funny how your opinion changes from one series to another. 

Cook, Hales, Root, Stokes, Morgan, Buttler, Ansari, S Wood, Broad, Finn, Topley

Other names considered but not included in either ODI team listed here: Kieswetter, Briggs, C Wood, Thakor, Roland-Jones, Shahzad, Dernbach, Ballance, Dockrell, Whiteley, J Taylor, Billings, Stirling, Willey, S Davies, Roy, Chopra, Rafiq, Bresnan, C Overton, J Overton, Vince, Dawson

T20 team
Hales, Stirling, Stokes, Bairstow, Morgan, Buttler, Ansari, Gregory, C Wood, Finn, Briggs

Other names considered: Kieswetter, Dockrell, Topley, J Taylor, Willey, Broad, S Wood, Dernbach, Roy, Ashraf, Rafiq, Ballance, Bresnan, Vince, M Ali, Cobb, J Overton



Predicting the future



Predicting the future in anything is tough. There are so many variables and seemingly random incidents that can change the course of history. To predict the England team in 5 years is a fool’s mission – but one I intend to do in this blog post.


If we take a look at the England teams of 5 and 10 years ago


Test -2007/08

Cook, Vaughan, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Bopara, Prior, Sidebottam, Harmison, Hoggard, Panesar(SL Dec 2007 )

Cook, Vaughan, Strauss, Pietersen, Bell, Collingwood, Ambrose, Sidebottom, Hoggard, Harmison, Panesar(NZ march 2008)


Test – 2002/03

Trescothick, Vaughan, Butcher, Hussain, Crawley, Stewart, White, Giles, Caddick, Hoggard, Jones(1st test vs Aus 2002)

Trescothick, Vaughan, Butcher, Hussain, Key, Crawley, Stewart, Dawson, Caddick, Hoggard, Harmison(5th test 2003)


Today – Cook, Compton,Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Root,Prior, Broad, Swann, Finn, Anderson, (Panesar, Bresnan, Bairstow)



From 2002/03 to 07/08 England only had ~ 3 players still around(Vaughan, Harmison, Hoggard)

For 2007/08 to present day 4 or 5 players remain(Cook, Bell, Pietersen, Prior, Panesar)


This possibly suggests that in 5 years time England are likely to have 3,4 or 5 players remaining from the current squad.


But if we look at the age at which English regular players play the last test match in the last 10-15 years. 


Strauss 35, Collingwood 34, Harmison 30, Flintoff 31, Vaughan 33, Sidebottom 32, Hoggard 31, Trescothick 30, Giles 33, Butcher 32, Hussain 36, Alex Stewart 40, Gough 32, Atherton 33, Caddick 34, Hick 34, Ramprakash 32


The batsmen average age of last game is 33.9 and the bowlers 31.86.


In 5 years time the current England team will be

Test in 5 years time – Cook(33), Compton(34),Trott(36), Pietersen(37), Bell(35), Root(27),Prior(35), Broad(31), Swann(38), Finn(28), Anderson (35)


The numbers suggest that again there will probably be 3,4 or 5 of this team remaining in 5 years time.


9 players will have question marks over their age and there are no guarantees over the other two (Finn and Root) as we have no way of knowing form or health.



On an individual basis I can make some guesses.


Cook(32) - Seemingly impervious to pressure and with a faultless fitness record it would be a big surprise if Cook isn’t around at 32.

Compton(34) – Seems distinctly unlikely given I am not sure he quite has the ability to be an international class player. Likely to be dropped in the next year or two.

Trott(36) – At 36 and having come into test cricket fairly late he may well make it to this point. No question marks over his short term future as one of England’s most consistent batsmen and you get the feeling scoring runs is his favourite hobby and he will want to go on as long as possible

Pietersen(37) – Seems unlikely given his ability to upset people and his continual complaining about international schedules and being away from his family. Only way he makes it this far is he gives up T20 and ODI cricket early and still finds satisfaction from test cricket and IPL.

Bell(35) – Has been around since 2004 and to make it to 2018 seems unlikely. More likely to be pushed especially if his poor form against good opposition continues. Expect him to be binned after England return to touring Asia in 2-3 years time.

Prior(35) – Unlikely for two main reasons. One, there are a surplus of young and promising wicketkeeper batsmen on the circuit any of one which could overtake Prior. Two, Prior is constantly managing a troublesome Achilles problem and at nearly 36 it would takes some impressive commitment to make it this far

Broad(31) –Playing over all 3 formats for the last 5 or so years, Broad has dealt with his fair share of injuries, flying and stress and I have my doubts that he will make it to 2018.

Swann(38) –No chance of reaching 38. A chronic elbow condition and young family suggests that he has a couple of quality years left.

Anderson(35) –Although very fit and lean with no major recent injuries there is a lot of cricket to be played in the next 5 years and it seems unlikely he makes it to the elderly fast bowling age of 35.

Root(27) and Finn(28) – Neither should be close to retirement and you would imagine both to be regulars but there is no guarantee for either. Root is still inexperienced and unproven, and bowling coaches remain critical of Finn’s bowling action. 


At a guess I would imagine that Cook, (one of Bell, Trott or KP – probably Trott), Root, and Finn remain from the current team. Broad is the most iffy as past form and fitness issues have been varied and the effects of constant cricket over a decade take a toll on the body. So I’d guess 4 from the current team.


ODI team

2002/03

Trescothick, Knight, Irani, Hussain, Blackwell, Shah, Stewart, White, Batty, Caddick, Kirtley

Trescothick, Knight, Vaughan, Hussain, Stewart, Collingwood, Blackwell, Irani, Caddick, Anderson, Hoggard. (Australia CB series 2002/3)


2007/08

Cook, Mustard, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Shah, Bopara, Broad, Sidebottom, Anderson, Panesar(SL Oct 2007)

Cook, Mustard, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Shah, Bopara, Swann, Broad, Sidebottom, Anderson (NZ Feb 2008)


2012/13 best team.

Cook, Bell, Trott, Pietersen, Morgan, Buttler, Bresnan, Broad, Swann, Finn, Anderson (Bairstow, Root, Woakes)



From 2002/03 to 2007/08 only 2 remain namely Collingwood and Anderson.

From 2007/08 to 2012/13  5 or 6 remain namely Cook, Bell Pietersen, Broad, Anderson, Swann


It seems very unlikely that Bell, Trott, Pietersen, Swann and Anderson will still be around in 5 years time as each will be over 35 and only Alex Stewart of England’s recent players was a regular ODI player of 35+ years.


Morgan, Buttler and Finn would be the only 3 I would be relatively sure of still being around the team in 5 years time. Two or three of Cook, Bresnan, Broad, Bairstow and Root will likely still be around. I’d guess 4 of the current team + possibly Root and Bairstow.


T20 team

2008

Mustard, Wright, Pietersen, Bell, Collingwood, Shah, Mascarenhas, Swann, Broad, Sidebottom, Anderson (2008 vs New Zealand)

Current T20 in 5 years time – Hales(29), Wright(32), Pietersen(37), Morgan(31), Patel(33), Buttler(27), Bairstow(28), Bresnan(32), Broad(31), Swann(38), Finn(28)



4 remain today from the team in 2008. In 2017/18 only Pietersen and Swann will be obviously too old. It seems unlikely Wright and Patel will prove good enough and there must be big doubts over whether Bresnan and Broad can make it that far. I’d guess 5 players to be around in 5 years time.