2019 and All That

It has been a highly satisfactory two and a bit years for England’s ODI side since the last 50 over world cup. From a nadir that saw England a country mile off the pace as they exited a world cup in the group stages once again, there is now considerable optimism around the current team and their chances for 2019. The 2017 champions trophy didn’t bring the major trophy that everyone craves but it brought enough positives (along with the preceding two years) to think that England can be pretenders come 2019. Australia and then India remain favourites for me, but England are a solid third at present and still have a youthful squad that should be improving.

Batting is more or less sewn up two years out. 

Hales, Bairstow, Root, Morgan, Stokes, Buttler, Ali, Roy, Billings

Only really Roy and Billings are under threat of not making the squad. Roy I still think could come back into the first team instead of Bairstow. Bairstow is the more solid, reliable player; Roy is the potential matchwinner that they might need to win a knockout game but has a high variance style. Assuming they are both in form, their selection will likely be based on team style. Pick Bairstow and they are looking for a more secure, accumulation at the top of the order with Bairstow and Root in the top 3. Pick Roy and they are taking the more ambitious creative approach and hoping their long batting line-up can bail them out should they need it. I personally would still favour Roy at the top. He can take on real pace (as seen against Aus in 2015), contrasts nicely with Hales (Roy consistent quick pace, Hales slow to start but big acceleration at back end) and the batting unit can take up the slack if he does fail. Bairstow is efficient and a worthy backup who you could rely on from numbers 1-7 but at this point lacks the x factor that Roy has….. but it’s a close-run thing.

Billings is the one guy whose spot is under threat. He hasn’t really nailed his spot. To be fair to him England have missed chances to play him and then randomly given him other chances. Middle order is his best position but they’ve used him as opener. Whoever is the 9^th man out of 9 is always under threat - At present he is the last in, and the first out. The positives for him are that he will keep gaining high quality experience playing IPL and franchise cricket, and at present England lack reserves who give to England what Billings does. Billings can bat 1-7, fields brilliantly, can keep wicket and by all accounts is a team player – i.e. a perfect reserve. Batsman who could challenge Billings for a final spot in the squad are Liam Livingstone (lacks success in white ball games but good fielder, potentially destructive bat, and bowls some part time spin. Looked outclassed this summer in brief England displays), David Malan (a left-handed option at top of order), and maybe James Vince (another top order option). Dawson is another option in a slightly different role as backup to Ali and Rashid, but if selected Billings would probably make way. None of these looks credible at this point and don’t offer the versatility of Billings. It will be up to Billings to make sure he keeps improving whilst dealing with the lack of international cricket he will get in the next two years.

Bowling is the area that much remains up in the air. Woakes, Plunkett and Rashid are the strongest candidates. Plunkett’s age is a concern (34 in 2019) but has been their best bowler in the last year. Woakes’ all-round credentials make him valuable and Rashid is the one guy who offers a regular wicket taking threat through the middle. The great advantage England have at present is the luxury of picking six bowlers which means there are days when Rashid, Willey or whoever are not required to bowl full spells. This is down to Ali and Stokes who bat in the top 7 and can bowl 10 overs if required. It’s valuable because there is no standout bowler, and it allows Morgan to chop and change his bowling and has much more functionality than other teams when it comes to different conditions. Of course, the weakness England have is the lack of real quality ODI bowlers – potentially every other team will have at least one better bowler than England can muster. 

Woakes, Plunkett, Rashid

For that reason, England need to keep looking for that cutting edge and quality. They’ve tried a few left-hand bowlers since last world cup. Willey is a good athlete in the field and offers a little with the bat, but his bowling lacks bite and he has been mainly used at the start of the innings in recent times. If he stops taking wickets with the new ball he offers little to the team. Topley and Sam Curran are alternative left armers but both names are speculative at present. Topley has been beset by injuries and as a result hasn’t progressed. Sam Curran is still very young and didn’t have a great season, although I don’t think his bowling is much different to that of Willey’s at this stage, so if he were to show improvement he is going to give Willey a real run for his place. The alternative to Willey could be James Anderson. At present Willey is in the side to bowl at the start of the innings. Anderson would surely do a better job than Willey bowling in the first 25 overs and he wouldn’t be required to bowl at the death. Willey is regularly batting at 10 or 11 and hasn’t shown his domestic batting form in international cricket, so England wouldn’t be losing out much in that respect. Fielding wise Willey is very good but Anderson would still be a decent fielder, and could be protected by an otherwise strong fielding unit. Anderson will be 37 by the time the world cup comes around and may even have retired but if he still going strong with a year to go he should be seriously considered. The new ball skills of test cricket are roughly transferable with that of ODI cricket, and he wouldn’t need to bowl at the death/middle of the innings (where he would be more vulnerable to lack of practice/ modern game inventions). Broad’s name has been mentioned as an option but the skills and tactics he would need (i.e. middle and death overs) are less transferable from test cricket, so I don’t see him as a big option.

Mark Wood is the guy who offers the bit of extra pace and cutting edge that assuming he stays injury free makes him a credible option and likely starter if fit.

Wood

That leaves two spots for bowlers.  One spot is between Willey and Anderson. They are too similar in bowling respect (and offer little else) to take both. Take Willey and I’d be looking at a right armer for the final spot (TCurran, Finn, Ball). Anderson and I’d take a left armer (S Curran, Topley). I’d go Anderson and Sam Curran personally but this is a theory that has many ifs and buts. Much more likely is the Willey and TCurran/Ball scenario.

Anderson, Sam Curran (more likely Willey and Tom Curran).

Whilst no-one is ready yet I’d still hope that someone could come from outside the current group of bowlers to shake things up. Tom Helm, Saqib Mahmood and Olly Stone are top of that list. Helm is quick enough(80-85mph) and has good variations, and is tall so gets bounce. He lost pace this current season but could be that opening bowler and then death bowler that England crave. Mahmood is skiddy and quick – not dissimilar to a young Waqar Younis – but yet doesn’t have the experience or performances to warrant selection. Stone has had a horror injury but again has the pace that England craves and before the injury was a fine fielder too.

2019 CWC SQUAD - Hales, Bairstow, Root, Morgan, Stokes, Buttler, Ali, Roy, Billings, Woakes, Plunkett, Rashid, Wood, Anderson, Sam Curran (more likely Willey and Tom Curran).

Final XI - Hales, Roy, Root, Stokes, Morgan, Buttler, Ali, Woakes, Rashid, Wood, Anderson 

 

How it could go all wrong – Buttler hasn’t quite gone from young prodigy to proven elite world class player. Can he hold up a run chase when 7 per over is needed in a pressure run chase of a world cup semi-final. He hasn’t shown quite the calmness under pressure needed for him to be a banker. I also am not sure about his motivation to become that player. He seems happy doing what he does. Eoin Morgan’s form can fall off a cliff at any point. England are wedded to him because he is captain, and that is a worry of a player who can have such troughs of form. The bowling remains lacking class. If the batsmen fail, it’s unlikely the bowlers can get them out of trouble. Plunkett their best current bowler is 32 now, and 34 come the world cup. Will England find they need to replace him in the meantime?