Into the future .... 2019

Following on from my previous efforts looking into the future, another season on I look at how England will setup in 4+ years time when England hosts the 2019 World Cup.

The batting at this point looks fairly easy to predict. Already there is a core of players who have had decent success in the current England team who are young enough that by 2019 they should be coming towards their peak. They are also a few on the touchlines who should be pushing for honours. I think you can pick 10 or so and be fairly confident that 5 or 6 will be mainstays of the group over all formats in 2019

The likely batsmen 2019 all formats

Root, Ballance, Hales, Vince, Lees, Morgan, Buttler, Taylor, Roy, Stokes, Cook

All of these are close to the team at present and only Cook and Morgan will be 30 or over by 2019. The rest should be hitting their peak years. There is no guarantee that any one name will still be around but as a group I fully expect most of them to have good careers. 

The bowling is so much more difficult to predict. The only current regular and classy bowlers they have in Broad and Anderson likely won’t be around by 2019 and no-one really else stands out as sufficient quality at present or looks to have amazing potential that you could pinpoint them as a future star.

Whereas with the bats you could pick 10 or so names and be confident that the names mentioned will make up basis of the team in 2019, with the bowlers you could easily name 20 and still have different names come through in 2019 and being mainstays of the attack 

The likely bowlers 2019 all formats

Jordan, Woakes, Finn, J Overton, C Overton, Gregory, T Curran, Dunn, Stone, Willey, M Wood, Coughlin, Helm, Roland-Jones, Fisher, Mills, Topley, Miles, Morris, Meaker, Riley, R Patel, Rashid, Borthwick, Ansari, Kerrigan, Ali, Broad

The likes of Root, Ballance, Buttler are very likely to be future mainstays of the batting lineup. With the bowling you couldn’t pick one name from that list. If the pace bowling is worrying the spin bowling list is scary. There are a distinct lack of credible candidates at present- and as English wickets become progressively slower and take more turn this is an area where we need to have strength in depth.

 

I’ll give you three versions of the test team for 2019. Firstly

Cook, Lees, Ballance, Vince, Root(c), Ali, Stokes, Buttler(wk), C Overton, Stone, Finn

This first team is stocked with mostly players who are around the current teams. Moeen hasn’t really convinced as yet but given the paucity of spin options he looks more likely than any other option at present.

Secondly

Lyth, Ansari, Ballance, Hain, Root(c), Stokes, Billings(wk), Woakes, Willey, Riley, Mills

Cook has gone through a lot in his career so far and even though he will only be 35 by 2019, which is fairly early for a batsman to retire, the constant battle against the press as captain and against his own batting technique will take its toll. Lyth will likely get his chance in 2015 and whilst I'm not convinced of him as yet, he is young enough that should he get off to a good start he has as good a chance as any to get a real run in the current setup. Ansari is somewhat of a punt. He’s a little limited at the moment as an opener but his spin bowling makes him an enterprising option. He gives the ball a real rip and his left arm stuff could compliment at right arm off spinner on two spinner wickets. His opening partner at Surrey, Rory Burns, is another who I rate highly and has a little more sparkle to his game at present than Ansari.  Although not included here I don’t discount Sam Robson cracking the test scene. He’s had a few problems this summer but is only 25 and at some point will likely get another opportunity.

Sam Hain already looks a star of the future with the bat having compiled 4 first class centuries this season batting in a composed and compact style. By 2019 he’ll be 23 turning 24 and currently looks the best of the next generation. Ben Stokes I still like as a batsman down the line at 6; he has too much talent with the bat to go at 8, 7 may be a compromise of sorts. He should be vitally important as player that balances the team – and looks the most likely player to do that going forward. Others who could perform the vital allrounders role are Ansari, Woakes, Rashid, C Overton.

Buttler as wicketkeeper batsman in test cricket still doesn’t convince me. His keeping is average and his batting is mighty vulnerable – although to be fair he performed admirably and with few mistakes in his first series this summer against India. The opportunity has likely passed Kieswetter and Davies by. By 2019 the likes of Billings, Foakes and Joe Clarke should be pushing for selection. Billings may be found to be the more competent keeper and with a batting technique better suited for test match cricket by that point.

Woakes is a good cricketer but is he of genuine international class? Well it’s probably a question that will bug him for his whole career but it’s likely, given the lack of alternatives, that he will be around squads for a long time. He works hard at his game and is improving constantly. Maybe he will crack it. Willey swings the red ball and is a promising bat although at present lacks a bit of pace. Riley is probably the most likely spin bowler to break through and Mills will always have a chance because of his express pace should he ever add improved fitness and accuracy.

Thirdly, a currently uncapped xi

Lees, Hameed, Ansari(c), Hain, Vince, Roy, Billings(wk), C Overton, M Wood, Curran, Stone

Hameed is the brightest of the u19s with a very correct technique and good temperament. Jason Roy has the talent with a wealth of attacking options but can he continue to find the consistency that he ended this current season with? Mark Wood has been injury prone so far but bowls with good pace from a short run up in a similar way to Simon Jones. Tom Curran was one of the most impressive young cricketers I saw this season bowling quickly and accurately and getting some movement. Olly Stone is a more typical English type bowler who gets close to the stumps and looks to seam the ball at reasonable pace.  

ODI and T20 2019

The same principles of batting and bowling remain for the ODI and T20 sides with the batting looking fairly predictable and the bowling being a relative mystery. The ODI lineup could look something like this...

Lees, Hales, Root, Stokes, Buttler(c), Morgan, Billings(wk), Willey, C Overton, Riley, Finn

The makings of the top order are already there with Buttler, Morgan, Root and Hales already situated there. Stokes has batted all round the order but I like him up the order. He hits boundaries even when the field is back with conventional strokes and has enough power against spin to capitalize on average bowling. Also he isn’t a good hitter batting 6 or 7 as he tends to lose his shape when trying to hit the ball really hard – instead of the natural striking of the ball when he bats up the order. Lees really impressed me this season. He hits conventional strokes but hits the ball hard with a full face of the bat. Against spin he has boundary options but needs to work more on playing with softer hands and rotating the strike. I feel he'll crack the ODI team first whilst test success may be a little longer in the waiting. Billings is a similar bat to Buttler; hitting the ball in unconventional areas and striking at a good run rate. They both could play in the same team. Buttler relieved of the gloves and with the greater experience could move up the order to number 5 where he could play the AB de Villiers type multi functional role. Buttler is an outstanding fielder and at present his keeping is average so losing that wouldn’t be a problem.

Willey and Craig Overton would offer firepower down the order. Willey at the moment needs more variation to his bowling and a little more pace but his explosive batting is exciting. Overton is tall and bowls wicket to wicket and is hard to get away. Riley is the best of the spinners available and Finn probably the likeliest of the current group to still be around. Finn is something of a worry in general and question marks remain over whether he will reach his potential or even hit the highs of his ODI career pre his breakdown in Australia.

This team really does have the potential to be extremely good and very watchable. The top order is fairly orthodox but the likes of Hales and Lees hit the ball sweetly and could use the powerplays efficiently. Get to number 5 and the unorthodoxy and real strength of the team begins with many players capable of changing a game. Bowling as it does now remains a concern. In an ideal scenario Finn would return to the incisive ODI bowler that he was; Willey would be a master with the new ball and at the depth with his slingy action; Overton adds pace to his awkwardness mimicking current Morne Morkel; and Stokes continues to improve and add variation to his game.

A couple of other options looking at different players and tactics

Hales, Vince, Lees, Taylor(c), Roy, Buttler(wk), Willey, Jordan, Stone, R Patel, Mills

Vince, Lees, Taylor/Root, Ali, Morgan(c), Buttler(wk), Stokes, C Overton, Miles, Topley, Dunn 

Taylor and Root I see as very similar players. Both right handed and primarily back foot players their odi game is based around rotation early on. They struggle really to hit boundaries early in their innings especially in the v. As their innings go on they become more unorthodox and have greater boundary hitting ability (Taylor is ahead of Root at present later in the innings as he hits his big shots cleaner and with more efficiency) but at international level do they have the outright power to completely dominate and get the big hundreds that you require to win games? 

I worry that they are too similar. If for instance the team is 40-2 with Root and Taylor together I feel it’s a little too easy for the opposition to bowl to them and for England to become stuck. For that reason and given the plentiful other options I feel that it may end up a one or the other scenario and the problem for Taylor is that Root offers the all important 6^th bowling option. As you can see from the teams I’ve been putting together nearly all the batting options don’t bowl. Hales, Lees, Morgan, Buttler/Billings, Taylor, Roy. Vince bowls a little rough medium pace but the rest nothing. This means that offering two similar players England will almost certainly take the guy who offers a serviceable 6^th bowler route. This is a big problem for Taylor. It’s possible that they are both so good that there is no problem batting together or that the alternative contrasting players don’t fulfil their talent – but for me the sameness of their play may be an issue going forward.

The lack of spin bowling options is the real bugbear especially of a proven mystery spinner or at least one who spins it in two directions. ODI bowling attacks need penetration more than anything to limit the runscoring of the opposition. The two half plausible options at present are Rashid and Borthwick. Rashid is the better OD spinner with a decent googly and an offbreak but I just feel that his bowling lacks real zip. It’s too easy for the good international class batsman to get to the pitch or rock back against him and punish him. Borthwick’s bowling barely warrants mentioning as he seems to bowl less by the year. There are a couple of leg spinners in the youth groups that have decent reputations such as Matthew Parkinson but he is just 18 and generally it takes a long time for a spinner to really develop and be confident. For that reason you’re probably left with Riley, R Patel or Moeen Ali. 

Blistering pace tends to be the other weapon of bowlers that is a real wicket taker. England generally lacks these type of bowlers. Tymal Mills apart there isn’t much. Jamie Overton has struggled the last year or so and Matt Dunn has scaled the pace back a little.

T20 will be similar to the odi side.

Hales, Vince, Roy, Buttler(c), Morgan, Billings(wk), Willey, C Overton, Curran, Topley, Riley

Very soon this team has the potential to be extremely exciting. There is less retrospection and time for creation of an innings in T20 as opposed to ODI so an all out attack tactic seems to be best. Once the ashes of 2015 is over I hope for 2016 and onwards there is a little more freedom for some of our better limited overs batsmen to go to the IPL and experience the conditions and improve.

So in summary we end something like this in 2019.

Test - Cook, Lees, Ballance, Vince, Root(c), Ali, Stokes, Buttler(wk), C Overton, Stone, Finn

ODI - Lees, Hales, Root, Stokes, Buttler(c), Morgan, Billings(wk), Willey, C Overton, Riley, Finn

T20 - Hales, Vince, Roy, Buttler(c), Morgan, Billings(wk), Willey, C Overton, Curran, Topley, Riley

Ashes and World cup winners no doubt! Lets gloss over the fact that I’m not even that bigger fan of Craig Overton and yet he is in all 3 of the teams and that James Vince is in test and T20 and yet isn’t in ODI.

I feel in ODI and T20 cricket we are in good hands with our batting. Test cricket is more uncertain batting wise. Bowling wise these could be a barren few years if Anderson and Broad retire early and without bowlers it will be a real struggle regardless of the format or the capabilities of the batsmen.