Spin an option for those at the bottom of division 2.

Since the two divisions of the county championship were introduced in 2000, Gloucestershire, Derbyshire and Glamorgan have spent the least time in division 1, having spent two years a piece in the top division. Derbyshire haven't won a major trophy since they won the Benson and Hedges Cup in 1993. Since then every other county has won at least 2 trophies, Warwickshire have been the most successful with 13 trophies.

Derbyshire's recent finishes in division 2 have been 7th(2018, 8th(2017), 9th last (2016), 8th(2015) 4th(2014).
Gloucestershire's recent finishes are 5th(2018), 6th(2017), 6th(2016), 6th(2015), 7th(2014), 6th(2013), 9th Last (2012).
Glamorgan's recent finishes are 10th last (2018), 7th(2017), 8th(2016), 4th(2015), 8th(2013), 6th(2012), 6th(2011).

They haven't been close to promotion in any of these years. None of these counties are producing England cricketers either. Jack Russell, Dominic Cork and Robert Croft are the last semi regular England cricketers to come from these counties.

You have to wonder quite what these counties are doing, and how they could try and change things around. It interests me why a struggling division 2 club has not taken a cue from the example of Somerset in the first division and produced spinning wickets on the regular. It would seem the most obvious way of turning home advantage in your favour and narrowing the gap quickly between those at the bottom and top. 

With 3 up and 1 down in the county championship in 2019 there is a real opportunity for division 2 clubs to make progress, although there are 4 division 2 counties who are significantly stronger than the rest in 2019 - Lancashire(2-1 bookies favourite), Middlesex(7/2), Sussex(9/2), Worcesterstershire(8/1), rest (20-1+).

Worcestershire will be one club who will be massively fancying their chances of getting one of the three promotion spots but their current story sums up why it's so hard to build a club over a number of years to achieve success. Worcestershire have produced many excellent young cricketers in recent time, but they are also losing these players to 'test ground' counties, as they yo-yo between the divisions. Joe Clarke and Tom Kohler-Cadmore have moved to first division counties in a bid to gain selection for England, and for bigger contracts. It doesn't exactly provide a lot of hope to those at the bottom of division 2 that Worcestershire are doing so well in developing young players and yet still can't keep hold of them and are seemingly stuck as a yoyo club, with the 'international' counties stockpiling all the talent.  Nottinghamshire is a polar opposite of Worcestershire. Few players have broken through from the academy to become regulars in recent years, but they've upgraded the squad continuously with the best young English talent, (Duckett, Joe Clarke, Ben Slater and Zac Chappell all moved this year), and whilst they had a setback when relegated in 2016, they bounced straight back the next year and once again are settled in division 1.

I propose that unless you have an exceptional bunch of young players that all come through together that it's seriously hard to build a club from the position Derbyshire or Glamorgan or Gloucestershire are. They can't compete financially with a lot of other counties, and they also struggle with a limited catchment area of their counties to produce players. They don't have the strong record of Yorkshire or Durham of strong local leagues producing players. In recent years a lot of division 2 counties have focused on the 50 over and 20 over cups.

Maybe a different approach is required and Somerset may be the team that others can learn from. Somerset have produced turning wickets at Taunton for the last three years and have had great success at it.  They've had two England players come through, Jack Leach and Dominic Leach, and were unbeaten at home in 2018 in the championship finishing in second place.

Any of a number of counties at the bottom of division 2 could move to a spin dominant tactic in the championship. The tactical advantages are obvious. If you play on turning wickets every other week, whilst every other team plays once a year on a turning deck then you have a pretty significant home advantage. You might have a worse squad than a Sussex or Middlesex but the gap will narrow due to your heightened home advantage. In time the county will possibly become attractive to other spin bowlers, and batsman wanting something other than the standard low green seamer. For a county now like Derbyshire who have little going for it, in the future they may be know as a spin friendly county. Like Taunton is now known colloquially as 'Ciderabad', Chesterfield may well become known as 'Bunsenfield'.

There were a number of decent spinners released by counties over the 2018 season. Simon Kerrigan, Ravi Patel, and Azeem Rafiq have all had good careers and find themselves without contracts currently.  Rob Sayer and Sunny Singh are two younger bowlers with decent promise who also find themselves without contracts. Euan Woods is a promising off-spinner who couldn't make the breakthrough at Surrey. Even someone like Ollie Rayner, whilst still contracted to Middlesex, has struggled for chances over the last couple of years and may be willing to to play somewhere where he gets more opportunities. Produce a turning wicket and there are enough options available on the free market to sufficiently staff a county squad however limited the spinning options are currently. From an injury point of view, spinners are a more reliable option than fast bowlers so would allow counties dealing with small budgets to continue to do so. Another option would be to look for an overseas player who is a spinner - this might be the quickest way to close the gap between the strong counties and those who aren't.

Derbyshire are well placed already with two promising young spinners in Matt Critchley and Hamidullah Qadri. Bring in a Rafiq or Patel to add experience and they could have a promising spin attack. They also have a couple of good quick bowlers so they could produce dry flat wickets that turn that don't offer anything for the  opposing medium pace plodders, and give Derbyshire a balance. They have a couple of batting allrounders who bowl medium pace to allow them to increase their options to 4 seamers as required, even with 3 spinners in the team.

Proposed Derbyshire Side - Reece, Godleman, Lace, Madsen, Hughes, Smit, Critchley, Van Beek, Vijoen, R Patel, Qadri

Even if it doesn't go well it will still producing interesting cricket on spinning wickets. Somerset home games of recent years have always been interesting to follow. As an example the Bristol wickets in recent times have been fairly awful slow flat horrors which are a turn off to the fans.

Glamorgan have had quite a few young spinners (Salter, Morgan, Sisodiya, Bull) come through their academy in recent years and whilst none have kicked on massively that's probably as much to do with the conditions as their own potential. Many of them bat too. Sophia Gardens has in the past been known as a slow turner although not so in recent years, maybe they could go back to the turning wickets. 10th,7th and 8th place finishes in division 2 over the last three years certainly suggest they need to change tact.

Glamorgan -  Selman, Murphy, Marsh,Carlson, Lloyd, Cooke, Salter, Morgan, Van der Gugten, De Lange, Hogan,

Glamorgan actually have some decent cricketers that could make up a decent side. De Lange and Van der Gugten are both capable of bowling 85mph+, and have played a decent amount of good quality cricket overseas. Salter and Morgan, the two spinners in my proposed side have both opened the batting for Glamorgan in the past. Lukas Carey is a good young bowling prospect, and Michael Hogan an experienced campaigner. Really it's a squad that should be doing so much better than it currently does. The kind of team I've selected really covers it's bases and should make better use of their assets. Van der Gugten and De Lange's pace is nullified on slow green wickets that swing and seam a little. Ideally you'd create fast wickets for these two but that seems unlikely. Second best is flattish wickets (that turn) which would nullify the medium pace and put a premium on having pacey bowlers in the team. David Lloyd makes a fourth seamer when conditions necessitate.

Gloucestershire actually have two or three good young batsman who I have high hopes upon. Hankins, Bracey and Charlseworth are all promising but if Gloucestershire want to keep them in the long term they need progress in the championship. Losing Norwell and Miles to Warwickshire is a hammer blow of their chances going forward. Gloucestershire probably have the weakest of the spin bowlers from the teams mentioned . Tom Smith is a fairly non threatening left arm spinner, George Drissell has no real pedigree as yet, and other are part timers, so they would have to go into the transfer market. Whilst finances are tight, with Miles and Norwell gone, and the likely low wages of any potential spinner they could certainly pick up one spinner at a minimum. Ravi Patel is the best of the spinner available and really shouldn't be lost to the professional game, but Gloucestershire already have Tom Smith and Graeme Van Buuren bowling left arm spin, and with the prevalence of left arm over fast bowlers making rough outside the offstump of the right handed batsman, an offspinner is the better acquisition.

Gloucestershire - Dent, Hammond, Bracey, Hankins, Roderick, Higgins, Van Buuren, Rafiq, T Smith, Worrall, Payne

The 2019 schedule is very conducive to the tactic of producing spinning wickets with more championship cricket been played in the middle of the summer than in recent years, or will do in 2020. 2020 and on is the big reason why counties will probably think twice before going down this route. The schedule from 2020 on is of championship cricket mainly been pushed to the edges of the season. Still Somerset haven't had too many problems making turning wickets in September when they were desperate for wins in recent years.

As an aside it's a shame that they are playing the 50 over cup, rather than the championship, concurrently with the new hundred competition in 2020. The 50 over cup without any of the best 100 or so short format players in the country is going to be of a derisory standard, and the next generation of England cricketers will go without any kind of practice for 50 over world cups. If they had put the championship on at this point you would still have a reasonable standard with long format players such as Cook, Anderson, Broad, Hameed playing and you would have allowed young spinners to get some cricket during the middle of the summer - plus county members would have been happy. It would also have allowed a nice contrast for cricket supporters with both short format and long format games being played simultaneously, to allow maximum exposure to cricket fans of all varieties.

Root and Bayliss look at the big picture

Bairstow

Looking at the big picture and England need Bairstow to make a go of it at 3 or as opener. He may desperately want to keep the gloves but the team needs him to bat 3. After his excellent century in the third test he let off some anger in his interviews after the day's play. Most of it was misjudged and gave the impression of a person who was focused on his self and didn't have concern for the team. There was no mention of the contributions of Ben Foakes in the previous two tests, only anger over his non selection. That Bairstow had only averaged 31 over the previous two years, hadn't scored a century in 11 tests in Asia, or that England had just won a series in Sri Lanka for the first time since 2001, with Ben Foakes being the key player didn't seem to cross his mind. Bayliss, Root and the selectors are looking at the big picture. Bairstow in this moment was looking at his own personal situation. Is it really surprising now that Bairstow wasn't even considered when Root was made captain?

On a purely motivation and personal level players need to find what works for them. If Bairstow requires this kind of motivation to make him work then that's all the better for England. Both Bairstow and Broad have dealt well with the threat of being dropped in recent times, upping their efforts and coming back better. That's the sign of top quality performers with strong mental characteristics. On a team level Bairstow seems like he is a little tough to get on with.

England now have 15-18 players who are international quality who bat between 4 and 11. Between 1 and 3 they have no proven quality. Rory Burns had a promising start, Keaton Jennings plays spin pretty well, and Jonny Bairstow just scored a hundred in his first innings at number 3 for England, but there is no guarantee any of them will be there in a year's time. For England's sake, Bairstow needs to make a go of it at 3, whether he likes it or not.

Archer

Jofra Archer is a game changer for England but does it risk the team equilibrium in 2019 in a year when they were already favourites for the 50 over WC and the Ashes?
 
The current iteration of the England ODI side has been built on 3 and 1/2 years of solid development and improvement. They are now favourites for the WC with/or without Archer. The selectors are left with an interesting dilemna. There's no doubt in my mind that Archer is good enough to be in the England ODI squad. Whilst England's batting is very strong the bowling still remains average and lacks a degree of penetration on flat wickets. Archer is a better bowler than Willey, Wood, Sam Curran, and Olly Stone who were competing for the last couple of spots in England's fifteen. By bringing Archer in though are they risking the squad's equilibrium. Currently as a result of the 3 and 1/2 years all the players in teh squad know their exact role in the team. It's a well oiled team at present. Eoin Morgan and Trevor Bayliss knows exactly how the team plays and how to get the best out of the personalities in the team. Tactically things may change if you have Archer in the side. Bringing in Archer at late notice does bring a certain pressure onto him and the team. Graeme Hick is a cautionary tale. Hick, like Archer, was dominant at county level and there was a groundswell of anticipation of his debut for England after serving a qualificiation period. As it was the pressure and expectation meant England never quite got the best out of Hick. The pressure will be large upon Archer's shoulders. There is also a pressure on the England management. England were favourites even before this announcement, there is a feel good factor around the side with the press and with fans. Bringing in Archer will only increase the expectations and the ECB will get some criticism for their cynical change of rules to suit their own purposes. Even moreso than before these critics will be looking for England to slip up.

At the end of the day though Morgan, Bayliss and selectors will have to do what is best for the side. They'll have to determine whether Archer offers enough to balance out the potential upset from bringing him in.

Post World Cup I think he'll be a regular whatever happens at the World Cup. He's a good fielder when motivated, useful lower order bat, and most importantly offers pace, hostility and has good skills for ODI cricket.

For test matches I feel he's a massive gamechanger for England. Away from home especially his ability to bowl on flat wickets should come in handy. Archer offers pace, bounce and hostility. His consistent pace is something that England don't naturally produce. We are good at the 80mph swing/seam bowler. In England there are maybe 12 or so guys (Anderson, Broad, TRJ, S Curran, C Overton, Woakes, Rushworth, Coad, Archer, Porter, Ball and T Curran)  who could do a job at international level and average less than 30, away from home this might be 1 or 2 (Anderson and Archer). England can use him two ways. He's got incredible speed endurance and for Sussex has bowled upto 25 overs a day at close to 85mph average speed. They could also use him in short bursts of genuine pace. For Australia where England bowlers have struggled for a long time he has all the attributes required. He has pace, he gets bounce and possibly most importantly he has the pace endurance to bowl 20+ overs in the day.

For this summer at least he may actually not make the side on merit. Home wickets have been fairly good for the bowlers in recent years, especially swing, and England will expect to beat Australia comfortably with or without Archer. For the time being he may have to wait to get past Broad, Anderson, Woakes and Curran. Once he does though I'd expect him to get 300+ test wickets at less than 30 all things being equal.