Predicting the future

Predicting the future in anything is tough. There are so many variables and seemingly random incidents that can change the course of history. To predict the England team in 5 years is a fool’s mission – but one I intend to do in this blog post.

If we take a look at the England teams of 5 and 10 years ago

Test -2007/08

Cook, Vaughan, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Bopara, Prior, Sidebottam, Harmison, Hoggard, Panesar(SL Dec 2007 )

Cook, Vaughan, Strauss, Pietersen, Bell, Collingwood, Ambrose, Sidebottom, Hoggard, Harmison, Panesar(NZ march 2008)

Test – 2002/03

Trescothick, Vaughan, Butcher, Hussain, Crawley, Stewart, White, Giles, Caddick, Hoggard, Jones(1^st test vs Aus 2002)

Trescothick, Vaughan, Butcher, Hussain, Key, Crawley, Stewart, Dawson, Caddick, Hoggard, Harmison(5^th test 2003)

Today – Cook, Compton,Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Root,Prior, Broad, Swann, Finn, Anderson, (Panesar, Bresnan, Bairstow)

From 2002/03 to 07/08 England only had ~ 3 players still around(Vaughan, Harmison, Hoggard)

For 2007/08 to present day 4 or 5 players remain(Cook, Bell, Pietersen, Prior, Panesar)

This possibly suggests that in 5 years time England are likely to have 3,4 or 5 players remaining from the current squad.

But if we look at the age at which English regular players play the last test match in the last 10-15 years. 

Strauss 35, Collingwood 34, Harmison 30, Flintoff 31, Vaughan 33, Sidebottom 32, Hoggard 31, Trescothick 30, Giles 33, Butcher 32, Hussain 36, Alex Stewart 40, Gough 32, Atherton 33, Caddick 34, Hick 34, Ramprakash 32

The batsmen average age of last game is 33.9 and the bowlers 31.86.

In 5 years time the current England team will be

Test in 5 years time – Cook(33), Compton(34),Trott(36), Pietersen(37), Bell(35), Root(27),Prior(35), Broad(31), Swann(38), Finn(28), Anderson (35)

The numbers suggest that again there will probably be 3,4 or 5 of this team remaining in 5 years time.

9 players will have question marks over their age and there are no guarantees over the other two (Finn and Root) as we have no way of knowing form or health.

On an individual basis I can make some guesses.

Cook(32) - Seemingly impervious to pressure and with a faultless fitness record it would be a big surprise if Cook isn’t around at 32.

Compton(34) – Seems distinctly unlikely given I am not sure he quite has the ability to be an international class player. Likely to be dropped in the next year or two.

Trott(36) – At 36 and having come into test cricket fairly late he may well make it to this point. No question marks over his short term future as one of England’s most consistent batsmen and you get the feeling scoring runs is his favourite hobby and he will want to go on as long as possible

Pietersen(37) – Seems unlikely given his ability to upset people and his continual complaining about international schedules and being away from his family. Only way he makes it this far is he gives up T20 and ODI cricket early and still finds satisfaction from test cricket and IPL.

Bell(35) – Has been around since 2004 and to make it to 2018 seems unlikely. More likely to be pushed especially if his poor form against good opposition continues. Expect him to be binned after England return to touring Asia in 2-3 years time.

Prior(35) – Unlikely for two main reasons. One, there are a surplus of young and promising wicketkeeper batsmen on the circuit any of one which could overtake Prior. Two, Prior is constantly managing a troublesome Achilles problem and at nearly 36 it would takes some impressive commitment to make it this far

Broad(31) –Playing over all 3 formats for the last 5 or so years, Broad has dealt with his fair share of injuries, flying and stress and I have my doubts that he will make it to 2018.

Swann(38) –No chance of reaching 38. A chronic elbow condition and young family suggests that he has a couple of quality years left.

Anderson(35) –Although very fit and lean with no major recent injuries there is a lot of cricket to be played in the next 5 years and it seems unlikely he makes it to the elderly fast bowling age of 35.

Root(27) and Finn(28) – Neither should be close to retirement and you would imagine both to be regulars but there is no guarantee for either. Root is still inexperienced and unproven, and bowling coaches remain critical of Finn’s bowling action. 

At a guess I would imagine that Cook, (one of Bell, Trott or KP – probably Trott), Root, and Finn remain from the current team. Broad is the most iffy as past form and fitness issues have been varied and the effects of constant cricket over a decade take a toll on the body. So I’d guess 4 from the current team.

ODI team

2002/03

Trescothick, Knight, Irani, Hussain, Blackwell, Shah, Stewart, White, Batty, Caddick, Kirtley

Trescothick, Knight, Vaughan, Hussain, Stewart, Collingwood, Blackwell, Irani, Caddick, Anderson, Hoggard. (Australia CB series 2002/3)

2007/08

Cook, Mustard, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Shah, Bopara, Broad, Sidebottom, Anderson, Panesar(SL Oct 2007)

Cook, Mustard, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Shah, Bopara, Swann, Broad, Sidebottom, Anderson (NZ Feb 2008)

2012/13 best team.

Cook, Bell, Trott, Pietersen, Morgan, Buttler, Bresnan, Broad, Swann, Finn, Anderson (Bairstow, Root, Woakes)

From 2002/03 to 2007/08 only 2 remain namely Collingwood and Anderson.

From 2007/08 to 2012/13  5 or 6 remain namely Cook, Bell Pietersen, Broad, Anderson, Swann

It seems very unlikely that Bell, Trott, Pietersen, Swann and Anderson will still be around in 5 years time as each will be over 35 and only Alex Stewart of England’s recent players was a regular ODI player of 35+ years.

Morgan, Buttler and Finn would be the only 3 I would be relatively sure of still being around the team in 5 years time. Two or three of Cook, Bresnan, Broad, Bairstow and Root will likely still be around. I’d guess 4 of the current team + possibly Root and Bairstow.

T20 team

2008

Mustard, Wright, Pietersen, Bell, Collingwood, Shah, Mascarenhas, Swann, Broad, Sidebottom, Anderson (2008 vs New Zealand)

Current T20 in 5 years time – Hales(29), Wright(32), Pietersen(37), Morgan(31), Patel(33), Buttler(27), Bairstow(28), Bresnan(32), Broad(31), Swann(38), Finn(28)

4 remain today from the team in 2008. In 2017/18 only Pietersen and Swann will be obviously too old. It seems unlikely Wright and Patel will prove good enough and there must be big doubts over whether Bresnan and Broad can make it that far. I’d guess 5 players to be around in 5 years time.